Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers 📍 Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH | 🕐 1:10 PM MDT
The Line (Bovada): - Spread: Cleveland Cavaliers -5 (-105) | Detroit Pistons +4 (+100) - Moneyline: Cleveland Cavaliers -175 (Bovada) | Detroit Pistons +162 (FanDuel) - O/U: 212.5 (Over -102)
Season Ratings (2025-26): - [Home team]: Cleveland Cavaliers: 52-30 | Net +4.1 | Off 118.3 | Def 114.1 - [Away team]: Detroit Pistons: 60-22 | Net +8.4 | Off 117.3 | Def 108.9
Last 10 Games: - Cleveland Cavaliers: Net -1.4 | Off 111.7 | Def 113.2 | ↓ fading (-5.5) - Detroit Pistons: Net +6.7 | Off 109.7 | Def 103.0 | ↓ fading (-1.7)
Rest: - Cleveland Cavaliers: 27d rest - Detroit Pistons: 27d rest
Injuries: - Cleveland Cavaliers: Sam Merrill (Day-To-Day - Hamstring) - Detroit Pistons: Kevin Huerter (Out - Thigh)
Value Analysis:
Cleveland Cavaliers: net +4.1 (no adjustments)
Detroit Pistons: net +8.4 − 2.5 (Kevin Huerter Out, 22 mpg → -2.5) = +5.4
Edge: +4.1 − (+5.4) = -2.9 → Cleveland Cavaliers favored by 2.9 pts
Implied spread: -(edge -2.9 + Home court advantage 2.5) = +0.4
Actual spread: -5.0 → line 5.4 pts steep on Cleveland Cavaliers — lean Detroit Pistons +5.0
O/U implied total: (111.7 + 109.7) × 0.92 = 203.7
O/U actual: 212.5 → lean Under 212.5 — implied 8.8 pts below line
The Pick:
- Spread: Detroit Pistons +5 (+100, Caesars) — Ratings imply -0.4, actual line is -5.0, gap of 5.4 pts — steep on Cleveland Cavaliers. Detroit Pistons have a stronger net rating and are less likely to cover the spread.
- Moneyline: Detroit Pistons +162 (FanDuel) — +162 is within the acceptable range; ratings strongly favor Detroit and the line is underpriced.
- O/U: Under 212.5 (-102, Bovada) — Implied total is 203.7, which is 8.8 pts below the actual line of 212.5 — lean Under.
I'm taking Detroit Pistons +5 (Spread), Under 212.5 (O/U).