Atlanta Dream @ Minnesota Lynx 📍 Target Center, Minneapolis, MN | 🕐 6:00 PM MDT
The Line (LowVig.ag): - Spread: Minnesota Lynx +5 (-108) | Atlanta Dream -5 (-108) - Moneyline: Minnesota Lynx +195 (BetRivers) | Atlanta Dream -217 (MyBookie.ag) - O/U: 160.5 (Over -108)
Season Ratings (season): - [Season ratings unavailable]
Last 10 Games: - [L10 unavailable]
Rest: - Minnesota Lynx: Rest unknown - Atlanta Dream: Rest unknown
Injuries: - Minnesota Lynx: Dorka Juhasz (Out - Foot), Napheesa Collier (Out - Ankle) - Atlanta Dream: Brionna Jones (Out - Knee)
Value Analysis: - Minnesota Lynx: net [X] − 3.0 (Dorka Juhasz Out, Napheesa Collier Out) = [effective] - Atlanta Dream: net [X] − 4.5 (Brionna Jones Out) = [effective] - Edge: [homeeff] − ([awayeff]) = [edge] → [team] favored by [edge] pts - Implied spread: -(edge +2.5 Home court advantage) = [implied] - Actual spread: -5.0 → line 8.5 pts steep on Minnesota Lynx — lean Atlanta Dream -5.0 - O/U implied total: ([homeoff] + [awayoff]) × 0.92 = [X] - O/U actual: 160.5 → lean Over 160.5 — implied 4.7 pts below line
The Pick:
- Spread: Atlanta Dream -5 (FanDuel) — Ratings imply -3.8, actual line is -5.0, gap of 1.2 pts — steep on Minnesota Lynx. Both teams have key players out with injuries.
- Moneyline: Not recommended — Atlanta Dream ML is -217, juice is too steep for value.
- O/U: Over 160.5 (-108, LowVig.ag) — Implied total is 164.7, which is 4.7 pts below the actual line of 160.5 — lean Over.
I'm taking Atlanta Dream -5 (Spread), Over 160.5 (O/U).