New York Liberty @ Portland Fire 📍 Moda Center, Portland, Oregon | 🕐 8:00 PM MDT
The Line (FanDuel): - Spread: Portland Fire +12 (-110) | New York Liberty -13 (-102) - Moneyline: Portland Fire +650 | New York Liberty -850 - O/U: 173.5 (Over -110)
Season Ratings (2026): - [Portland Fire]: 0-1 | Net -18.3 | Off 101.2 | Def 119.5 - [New York Liberty]: 2-0 | Net +19.4 | Off 115.9 | Def 96.6
Last 10 Games: - Portland Fire: Net -18.3 | Off 101.2 | Def 119.5 | ~ stable - New York Liberty: Net +19.4 | Off 115.9 | Def 96.6 | ~ stable
Rest: - [Portland Fire]: 3d rest - [New York Liberty]: 2d rest
Injuries: - Portland Fire: Kamiah Smalls (Day-To-Day - Knee), Karlie Samuelson (Out - Foot) - New York Liberty: Satou Sabally (Out - Illness), Rebecca Allen (Out - Leg), Raquel Carrera (Out - Not Injury Related), Leonie Fiebich (Out - Not Injury Related), Sabrina Ionescu (Out - Ankle), Marine Fauthoux (Out - Knee)
Value Analysis: - Portland Fire: net -18.3 − 2.0 ([Karlie Samuelson] Out) = -20.3 - New York Liberty: net +19.4 − 12.0 ([Satou Sabally, Rebecca Allen, Raquel Carrera, Leonie Fiebich, Sabrina Ionescu, Marine Fauthoux] Out) = +7.4 - Edge: -20.3 − (+7.4) = -27.7 → Portland Fire favored by 27.7 pts - Implied spread: -(edge -27.7 + Home court advantage 2.5) = +25.2 - Actual spread: +12.5 → line 12.7 pts steep on Portland Fire — lean New York Liberty +12.5 - O/U implied total: (101.2 + 115.9) × 0.92 = 199.7 - O/U actual: 173.5 → lean Over 173.5 — implied +26.2 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: New York Liberty -13 (-102, DraftKings) — Ratings imply -25.2, actual line is -13.0, gap of 12.2 pts — steep on New York Liberty. Portland Fire lost Karlie Samuelson (Out - Foot), further weakening their defense.
- Moneyline: Not recommended — New York Liberty ML is -850, juice is too steep for value.
- O/U: Over 173.5 (-110, FanDuel) — Implied total of 199.7 is +26.2 pts above the line — lean Over.
I'm taking New York Liberty -13 (Spread), Over 173.5 (O/U).