Minnesota Lynx @ Dallas Wings 📍 College Park Center, Arlington, TX | 🕐 6:00 PM MDT
The Line (DraftKings): - Spread: Dallas Wings -4 (-105) | Minnesota Lynx +3 (-105) - Moneyline: Dallas Wings -169 (MyBookie.ag) | Minnesota Lynx +155 (BetRivers) - O/U: 178.5 (Over -104)
Season Ratings (2026): - [Home team]: Dallas Wings: 1-1 | Net -1.2 | Off 107.2 | Def 108.4 - [Away team]: Minnesota Lynx: 1-1 | Net +2.4 | Off 106.6 | Def 104.2
Last 10 Games: - Dallas Wings: Net -1.2 | Off 107.2 | Def 108.4 | ~ stable - Minnesota Lynx: Net +2.4 | Off 106.6 | Def 104.2 | ~ stable
Rest: - [Home team]: Dallas Wings: 2d rest - [Away team]: Minnesota Lynx: 2d rest
Injuries: - Dallas Wings: Azzi Fudd (Day-To-Day - Knee) - Minnesota Lynx: Dorka Juhasz (Out - Foot), Napheesa Collier (Out - Ankle)
Value Analysis: - [Home team]: net -1.2 - [Away team]: net +2.4 − 4.0 (Dorka Juhasz Out, 15 mpg est. → -2.0; Napheesa Collier Out, 15 mpg est. → -2.0) = -1.6 - Edge: -1.2 − (-1.6) = +0.4 → Dallas Wings favored by 0.4 pts - Implied spread: -(edge +0.4 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -2.9 - Actual spread: -4.5 → line 1.6 pts steep on Dallas Wings — lean Minnesota Lynx +4.5 - O/U implied total: (107.2 + 106.6) × 0.92 = 196.7 - O/U actual: 178.5 → lean Over 178.5 — implied +18.2 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx +4.5 (-105, DraftKings) — Ratings imply -2.9, actual line is -4.5, gap of 1.6 pts — steep on Dallas Wings. Minnesota Lynx get a favorable spread despite key player absences.
- Moneyline: Minnesota Lynx +155 (BetRivers) — +155 offers value given the implied spread is less demanding than the actual line.
- O/U: Over 178.5 (-104, FanDuel) — Implied total of 196.7 implies a higher scoring game; ratings support an over play.
I'm taking Minnesota Lynx +4.5 (Spread), Over 178.5 (O/U).