Toronto Tempo @ Los Angeles Sparks 📍 Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA | 🕐 5:00 PM MDT
The Line (Bovada): - Spread: Los Angeles Sparks -8 (-105) | Toronto Tempo +7 (-105) - Moneyline: Los Angeles Sparks -325 (DraftKings) | Toronto Tempo +275 (Bovada) - O/U: 175.5 (Over -104)
Season Ratings (2026): - Los Angeles Sparks: 1-2 | Net -14.0 | Off 103.7 | Def 117.6 - Toronto Tempo: 1-2 | Net +3.7 | Off 102.1 | Def 98.4
Last 10 Games: - Los Angeles Sparks: Net -14.0 | Off 103.7 | Def 117.6 | ~ stable - Toronto Tempo: Net +3.7 | Off 102.1 | Def 98.4 | ~ stable
Rest: - Los Angeles Sparks: 2d rest - Toronto Tempo: 2d rest
Injuries: - Los Angeles Sparks: Sania Feagin (Out - Leg), Ariel Atkins (Out - Head) - Toronto Tempo: Temi Fagbenle (Out - Shoulder), Isabelle Harrison (Out - Hand), Julie Allemand (Out - Hip)
Value Analysis: - Los Angeles Sparks: net -14.0 − 3.6 (Sania Feagin Out, 3 mpg → -0.4; Ariel Atkins Out, 24 mpg → -3.2) = -17.6 - Toronto Tempo: net +3.7 − 7.6 (Temi Fagbenle Out, 16 mpg → -2.1; Isabelle Harrison Out, 15 mpg est. → -2.0; Julie Allemand Out, 27 mpg → -3.6) = -3.9 - Edge: -17.6 − (-3.9) = -13.6 → Los Angeles Sparks favored by 13.6 pts - Implied spread: -(edge -13.6 + Home court advantage 2.5) = +11.1 - Actual spread: -8.0 → line 19.1 pts steep on Los Angeles Sparks — lean Toronto Tempo +8.0 - O/U implied total: (103.7 + 102.1) × 0.92 = 189.3 - O/U actual: 175.5 → lean Over 175.5 — implied +13.8 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Toronto Tempo +8 (-105, Bovada) — Ratings imply -11.1, actual line is -8.0, gap of 3.1 pts — steep on Los Angeles Sparks. Several key players are out for both teams but the Sparks lose two critical defenders.
- Moneyline: Not recommended — Toronto Tempo +275 (Bovada) — ratings strongly favor the underdog spread bet; moneyline odds are too steep at -275 to justify additional risk.
- O/U: Over 175.5 (-104, LowVig.ag) — Implied total is 189.3, which is 13.8 pts above the actual line of 175.5 — lean Over.
I'm taking Toronto Tempo +8 (Spread), Over 175.5 (O/U).