San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder 📍 Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK | 🕐 6:40 PM MDT
The Line (Bovada): - Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -6 (-105) | San Antonio Spurs +6 (-105) - Moneyline: Oklahoma City Thunder -215 (Caesars) | San Antonio Spurs +200 (DraftKings) - O/U: 221.5 (Over -107)
Season Ratings (2025-26): - [Home team]: Oklahoma City Thunder: 64-18 | Net +11.1 | Off 117.6 | Def 106.5 - [Away team]: San Antonio Spurs: 62-20 | Net +8.4 | Off 118.7 | Def 110.4
Last 10 Games: - Oklahoma City Thunder: Net +17.0 | Off 126.3 | Def 109.3 | ↑ trending (+5.9) - San Antonio Spurs: Net +15.2 | Off 117.3 | Def 102.2 | ↑ trending (+6.8)
Rest: - Oklahoma City Thunder: 7d rest - San Antonio Spurs: 3d rest
Injuries: - Oklahoma City Thunder: Thomas Sorber (Out - Knee) - San Antonio Spurs: Luke Kornet (Day-To-Day - Foot), De'Aaron Fox (Day-To-Day - Ankle), David Jones Garcia (Out - Ankle)
Value Analysis: - Oklahoma City Thunder: net +11.1 − 2.2 (Thomas Sorber Out) = +8.9 - San Antonio Spurs: net +8.4 − 0.7 (David Jones Garcia Out) = +7.7 - Edge: +8.9 − (+7.7) = +1.2 → Oklahoma City Thunder favored by 1.2 pts - Implied spread: -(edge +1.2 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -3.7 - Actual spread: -6.5 → line 2.8 pts steep on Oklahoma City Thunder — lean San Antonio Spurs +6.5 - O/U implied total: (126.3 + 117.3) × 0.92 = 224.1 - O/U actual: 221.5 → line roughly matches expected scoring
The Pick:
- Spread: San Antonio Spurs +6 (-105, Bovada) — Ratings imply -3.7, actual line is -6.5, gap of 2.8 pts — steep on Oklahoma City Thunder. San Antonio Spurs are trending stronger with key player David Jones Garcia out.
- Moneyline: San Antonio Spurs +200 (DraftKings) — +200 offers significant value considering their recent form and the overpriced spread line.
- O/U: Over 221.5 (-107, Bovada) — Implied total is 224.1, which aligns closely with the actual line of 221.5 — lean Over given both teams are trending positively offensively.
I'm taking San Antonio Spurs +6 (Spread), Over 221.5 (O/U).