Connecticut Sun @ Portland Fire 📍 Moda Center, Portland, Oregon | 🕐 Monday May 18 at 8:00 PM MDT
The Line (FanDuel): - Spread: Portland Fire -4 (-105) | Connecticut Sun +4 (-108) - Moneyline: Portland Fire -170 (MyBookie.ag) | Connecticut Sun +170 (BetRivers) - O/U: 173.0 (Over -108)
Season Ratings (2026): - [Portland Fire]: 1-2 | Net -12.6 | Off 106.5 | Def 119.0 - [Connecticut Sun]: 0-4 | Net -21.9 | Off 93.3 | Def 115.2
Last 10 Games: - Portland Fire: Net -12.6 | Off 106.5 | Def 119.0 | ~ stable - Connecticut Sun: Net -21.9 | Off 93.3 | Def 115.2 | ~ stable
Rest: - [Portland Fire]: 4d rest - [Connecticut Sun]: 3d rest
Injuries: - [Portland Fire]: Karlie Samuelson (Out - Foot), Kamiah Smalls (Day-To-Day - Ankle), Carla Leite (Day-To-Day - Ankle) - [Connecticut Sun]: Olivia Nelson-Ododa (Out - Ankle), Brittney Griner (Day-To-Day - Foot), Leila Lacan (Out - Not Injury Related)
Value Analysis: - Portland Fire: net -12.6 − 2.0 (Karlie Samuelson Out, 15 mpg est. → -2.0) = -14.6 - Connecticut Sun: net -21.9 − 4.2 (Olivia Nelson-Ododa Out, 16 mpg → -2.2; Leila Lacan Out, 15 mpg est. → -2.0) = -26.1 - Edge: -14.6 − (-26.1) = +11.5 → Portland Fire favored by 11.5 pts - Implied spread: -(edge +11.5 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -14.0 - Actual spread: -4.5 → line 9.5 pts cheap on Portland Fire — lean Portland Fire -4.5 - O/U implied total: (106.5 + 93.3) × 0.92 = 183.8 - O/U actual: 173.0 → lean Over 173.0 — implied +10.8 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Portland Fire -4 (-105, FanDuel) — Ratings imply -14.0, actual line is -4.5, gap of 9.5 pts — cheap on Portland Fire. Connecticut Sun lose Nelson-Ododa and Lacan (Out), weakening their defense.
- Moneyline: Portland Fire -170 (MyBookie.ag) — -170 is within the acceptable range; ratings strongly favor Portland and the line is underpriced.
- O/U: Over 173.0 (-108, LowVig.ag) — Implied total is 183.8, which is 10.8 pts above the actual line of 173.0 — lean Over.
I'm taking Portland Fire -4 (Spread), Over 173.0 (O/U).