Portland Fire @ Indiana Fever 📍 Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN | 🕐 5:00 PM MDT
The Line (DraftKings): - Spread: Indiana Fever -13 (-105) | Portland Fire +13 (-110) - Moneyline: Indiana Fever -900 (FanDuel) | Portland Fire +650 (Caesars) - O/U: 181.5 (Over -105)
Season Ratings (2026): - Indiana Fever: 2-2 | Net +5.2 | Off 109.8 | Def 104.6 - Portland Fire: 2-2 | Net -9.0 | Off 107.8 | Def 116.8
Last 10 Games: - Indiana Fever: Net +5.2 | Off 109.8 | Def 104.6 | ~ stable - Portland Fire: Net -9.0 | Off 107.8 | Def 116.8 | ~ stable
Rest: - Indiana Fever: 3d rest - Portland Fire: 2d rest
Injuries: - Indiana Fever: None notable - Portland Fire: Kamiah Smalls (Day-To-Day - Ankle), Karlie Samuelson (Out - Foot), Carla Leite (Day-To-Day - Ankle), Teja Oblak (Out - Not Injury Related)
Value Analysis: - Indiana Fever: net +5.2 (no adjustments) - Portland Fire: net -9.0 − 4.0 (Karlie Samuelson Out, 15 mpg est. → -2.0; Teja Oblak Out, 15 mpg est. → -2.0) = -13.0 - Edge: +5.2 − (-13.0) = +18.2 → Indiana Fever favored by 18.2 pts - Implied spread: -(edge +18.2 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -20.7 - Actual spread: -13.5 → line 7.2 pts cheap on Indiana Fever — lean Indiana Fever -13.5 - O/U implied total: (109.8 + 107.8) × 0.92 = 200.2 - O/U actual: 181.5 → lean Over 181.5 — implied +18.7 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Indiana Fever -13 (-105, DraftKings) — Ratings imply -20.7, actual line is -13.5, gap of 7.2 pts — cheap on Indiana Fever. Portland Fire lose Karlie Samuelson (Out - Foot), weakening their offense.
- Moneyline: Not recommended — Indiana Fever ML is -900, juice is too steep for value.
- O/U: Over 181.5 (-105, DraftKings) — Implied total is 200.2, which is 18.7 pts above the actual line of 181.5 — lean Over.
I'm taking Indiana Fever -13 (Spread), Over 181.5 (O/U).