Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks 📍 Madison Square Garden, New York, NY | 🕐 Monday May 4 at 6:10 PM MDT
The Line (Bovada): - Spread: New York Knicks -7 (+100) | Philadelphia 76ers +7 (-109) - Moneyline: New York Knicks -280 (Fanatics) | Philadelphia 76ers +240 (Caesars) - O/U: 213.5 (Over -107)
Season Ratings (2025-26): - [New York Knicks]: 53-29 | Net +6.4 | Off 118.7 | Def 112.3 - [Philadelphia 76ers]: 45-37 | Net -0.1 | Off 114.3 | Def 114.4
Last 10 Games: - New York Knicks: Net +9.9 (↑ trending +11.7) - Philadelphia 76ers: Net -0.9 (↓ fading -2.6)
Rest: - New York Knicks: 4d rest - Philadelphia 76ers: 4d rest
Injuries: - New York Knicks: Jeremy Sochan (Day-To-Day - Hamstring) - Philadelphia 76ers: Joel Embiid (Day-To-Day - Hip)
Value Analysis: New York Knicks: net +9.9 − [adj] = +9.9 Philadelphia 76ers: net -0.9 − [adj] = -0.9 Edge: +9.9 − (-0.9) = +10.8 → New York Knicks favored by 10.8 pts Implied spread: -(edge +10.8 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -13.3 Actual spread: -7.5 → line 5.8 pts cheap on New York Knicks — lean New York Knicks -7.5 O/U implied total: (121.9 + 110.8) × 0.92 = 214.1 O/U actual: 213.5 → line roughly matches expected scoring
The Pick:
- Spread: New York Knicks -7 (-100, Bovada) — Ratings imply -13.3, actual line is -7.5, gap of 5.8 pts — cheap on New York Knicks. Philadelphia 76ers are fading and Joel Embiid's status adds uncertainty.
- Moneyline: New York Knicks -280 (Fanatics) — Not recommended — New York Knicks ML is -280, juice is too steep for value.
- O/U: Over 213.5 (-107, Bovada) — Implied total is 214.1 which matches the line closely; lean Over due to both teams trending offensively in L10.
I'm taking New York Knicks -7 (Spread), Over 213.5 (O/U).